Shiller predicts the S&P 500 to be at 1430 in 2020, which is pretty bearish.
Now, I’m not highlighting this to say that I agree or disagree with his prediction (or really that I find predictions to be of much value at all…), but rather highlighting the value of dividends.
If you’ve got a portfolio with an average dividend yield of 3-5% or more, along with safe payout ratios, long histories of dividend growth, solid balance sheets, and companies that are in fairly healthy industries that you have a thorough understanding of, it would be fairly difficult to achieve a rate of return that low over that long of a time period. Periods in the past where that bad of a return occurred were mainly due to the equities being vastly overvalued in the beginning of that period (meaning that 3-5% dividend yields with safe payout ratios were not easy to find).
By focusing on companies that return value to shareholders, you’re pocketing a substantial part of the returns right now, giving you the option to redirect them to wherever the opportunities are.